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Comments of political scientist and international relations expert Anton Kuchukhidze on negotiations of the ‘Normandy four’ leaders in Berlin and future prospects of Ukraine are given below.
Firstly, it should be noted that the Minsk agreements remain uncontested. Subsequently, on the basis of these agreements it will be approved the ‘roadmap’ that was announced by the leaders after the Normandy Four format meeting. In fact, nothing new has happened.
New fundamental element appears in the form of armed OSCE mission in Donbas. This mission was not mentioned in the Minsk agreements before - there was only OSCE Special Monitoring Mission. According to Mrs. Merkel, the decision on such a mission can be positive only after Ukraine adopts a law on local elections in uncontrolled areas of Donbas.
As for the sequence that we may see in the above mentioned ‘roadmap’, taking into account that it is prepared at the level of Foreign Ministers of the Normandy Four countries, there is a high probability that the ‘roadmap’ will be as follows: security and political issues of the Minsk agreements are to be solved in parallel and simultaneously and only after solving these two elements it will be possible to talk about full return of control of the Ukraine-Russia border. In other words, we cannot say that there is something radically new. The future of armed OSCE mission in Donbas is the only novelty and open-ended question. We can only wait the end of November to see this ‘roadmap’. In general, it will completely display existing points of the Minsk agreements.