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2013.5.29, 0.00

Andrey Mishin: There is no major political-economic group in Ukraine interested in customs union

It is known, on 28-29.May there is a conference of the major Eurasian Economic Community at the head-of-state level in Astana.  The number of meetings among the Presidents of Ukraine, Russia, Belorussia, Kazakhstan and Kirgizstan (as well as official and non-official) were planned within the bounds of agenda. Possible results of the conference are commented by political expert Andrey Mishin.


After the USSR has splitted, post-soviet countries tried to develop multilateral cooperation within the bounds of CIS. They succeeded in doing it in some areas, in some areas their efforts failed. Thus, for instance, the railway committee is effective for CIS, because the arteries of former big state remained and they are working till now.

At the same time with efforts to organize the cooperation, the process of property redivision didn’t stop. That was the reason why many of projects and offers made by post-soviet space didn’t work. I’d remind you that the first custom agreement is of sample dd. 1993, it was supported by Prime-minister Leonid Kuchma, Vice-premier Vladimir Lannik, acting Prime-minister Efim Zvyagilsky. It means all these items were risen at those times, although they were not thought over.


20 years passed, and nowadays the process of integration within the post-soviet space has absolutely conscious character – Trade alliance could be quite effective. By its developing one paid attention to not only European, but also American and Asian analogues of such organizations. Nowadays CU is a quite acting organization serving the interests of its member states – Russia, Belorussia and Kazakhstan.


The major economic council met in Astana is effective, it provides possibilities to discuss the perspectives, strategy and tactics of further development. The concrete project of interaction could be Eurasian Economic Community, acting since 2014, it is a background for higher level. Most likely, Ukraine will take part in it as an observer.


The interest of CU to Ukraine is simple to understand: it is considered that the full-fledged common market is possible on the assumption of minimum 200 Mio people population. Belarussia, Kazakhstan und Russia are missing of 45 Mio. From the other side, 200 Mio people was peculiar for the end of XX century.


CU would be developing much faster, if Ukraine took part in it. But we are the planet between two stars, European Union and Customs Union. Thus, we have centrifugal, centripital force both to one side and to another.


At the moment the priority for Ukraine is Vilnius, Agreement about association in EU. We cannot fully  calculate the preferences for Ukraine of CU, as this alliance is not advantageous for big-scaled Ukrainian business.


TA is advantageous for middle-scaled business. For metallurgy and fuel transportation it is not profitable – the whole “Firtash group” would disappear. Nowadays there is no single big-scaled political-economic group in Ukraine, interested in Customs Union.


That’s why we can observe the rhetoric of some politicians, who are putting a brave face on a sorry business. Although the Kremlin understands perfectly well, Ukraine has at the moment neither inner wish nor political power to join Customs Union. 


Our participation in CU as an observer, proceeding from its structure, is equivalent to the observer by dock storage. The convoy of the Customs Union is leaving and we are staying. And it’s no matter if we observe or not. Ukraine should decide on its foreign-policy direction. But if we said Eurointegration, than – eurointegration.


евроинтеграция, Андрей Мишин, заседания высшего Евразийского экономического совета на уровне глав государств, возможные результаты заседания, артерии бывшего большого государства, первый ТС, таможенный договор образца 1993 просчитать выгоды Украины, обговорить перспективы стратегию и тактику, ТС выгоден, ТС не выгоден, участие как наблюдателя в ТС, в начальных этапах интеграции, эксперт Мишин, мнение Мишина, точка зрения Андрея Мишина,

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